Thermal Detections and False Positives

What the satellite actually detects

Active-fire products identify pixels whose thermal signal differs from their surroundings under the sensor's detection method. A retained point means that a heat anomaly was measured in a satellite overpass. It does not by itself identify the object, cause, owner, or start time of the heat source.

Pixel size, viewing angle, cloud, smoke, atmospheric conditions, and the interval between overpasses limit precision. Coordinates commonly describe the centre of a detection pixel, not the exact centre of a fire or impact site.

Persistent industrial heat is a known confounder

Refineries, steel works, power facilities, cement plants, mines, waste burning, and gas flares can create repeated thermal anomalies. Volcanic and geothermal areas can do the same. A map intended to highlight new incidents should compare current points with a history of recurring locations.

SkyWatch suppresses or lowers the prominence of known persistent clusters while retaining enough audit information to revisit the decision. A fixed exclusion must be narrow: a real fire near an industrial site should not disappear merely because the area is usually warm.

Confidence comes from pattern and context

A new cluster observed by more than one overpass, with stronger radiative output and no persistent history, is more informative than one isolated weak point. Agreement with smoke, public incident reports, weather conditions, or high-resolution imagery can strengthen an assessment.

Context can also reduce confidence. A point aligned with a long-running flare, repeated at the same hour or facility, is less likely to represent a new event. SkyWatch should expose why a detection was retained or filtered whenever that information is available.

Cloud and time gaps matter

A missing detection can mean that no anomaly met the sensor threshold, but cloud or an observation gap can also hide activity. Satellite products are periodic snapshots rather than continuous cameras. The time since the last usable overpass is therefore part of the interpretation.

Weather overlays can help explain missing or uncertain detections, but they must be matched to the observation time rather than only the current weather. A cloud layer viewed hours later cannot prove what the sensor saw during the pass.

No automatic attribution

SkyWatch treats thermal points as leads for further research and never as automatic proof of a strike, explosion, sabotage, or casualty event. Attribution requires independent evidence and careful timing.

Public posts should distinguish observation from assessment: state that a thermal anomaly was detected, name the source and time, explain known limitations, and avoid tactical coordinates or claims of intent.